2008 Election Simulator

Recomiendo View this electoral simulador of http://www.270towin.com

2008 Election Simulator (Obama vs. McCain)

Tomado de: http://www.270towin.com/simulation/

As you land on this page, a simulated election will be conducted, with all 50 states and DC colored red or blue in about 15 seconds. Each time you click the Run Again button, another simulated election will take place. You can see the results of the last 1,000 simulations by clicking the View Stats button.

Methodology
We take current state-by-state polls and turn the results into probabilities. Each simulation picks a winner in each individual state, based on the probabilities for that state. For example, if McCain has a 55% chance of winning Nevada, he will, in the long run, win Nevada in 55% of the simulations conducted. States that are not polling close (e.g., Utah or Rhode Island) will always yield the same result. As a result, a closer election, with more swing states, will yield a wider range of simulation results than an election with fewer states that are up for grabs. The simulator does not consider the possibility of split electoral votes in Maine or Nebraska.

2008 Election Simulator Results

The simulator is NOT a prediction of the outcome of the election. It merely takes representative state polls (or averages of multiple polls where appropriate) and answers the question: IF the election were today, what is the range of likely outcomes, based purely on those polls? In the graphic below and the statistics to the right, you can see how the final set of polls predicted the 2008 election would turn out. Note also that the current version of the simulator treats each state as an independent event. As a result, it somewhat underplays the possibility of most or all swing states breaking for one candidate on election day. If that were to happen, the outcome would likely be much closer to the edge of the range of outcomes than the center. To come up with your own scenarios, visit our 2008 interactive map.

The graphic below plots the outcome of the last 1,000 Obama vs. McCain election simulations run by visitors to 270toWin. The simulations are based on state-by-state probabilities of victory. These probabilities are calculated from actual state-by-state polls. For more on the methodology.

At right, we have posted some summary statistics of the last 1,000 simulations. However, given the number of possibilities, the chance of any one specific outcome occurring is quite small. For that reason, we recommend you also take note of the 50%, 75% and 90% ranges in the graphic and in the table below the graphic.

1.    Median: This is the midpoint. If you rearranged all 1,000 simulations from high to low electoral votes, this would be the middle outcome.

2.    Average: This is a weighted average. If you added up all the electoral votes from the 1,000 simulations and divided by 1,000, this would be the average result.

3.    Most Common Outcome: This is the result that happened most often in 1,000 simulations. While interesting, it may bear no relationship to the other statistics. In fact, it might show a result favoring a different party than the other statistics. (As the number of swing states decreases, the most common result will move closer to the median and average.)

4.    Range: This is the full range of outcomes that occurred over 1,000 simulations. Essentially, it says that – given the current polls – the election outcome will not be outside this range.